HOLLYWOOD - FRIDAY 9:15 p.m. (Pacific): This weekend, women are invading America's multiplexes in mind-boggling numbers. Sex and the City (Warner Bros), adapted from the hit HBO series that launched a decade ago, has scored one of the most amazing openings in the history of film. Starting with 1,100+ sold-out or near sold-out midnight previews Thursday night, continuing with unthinkably huge matinee business and rampaging through Cosmopolitan-fueled late shows, Sex and the City has grabbed a truly remarkable $28.25M on opening day. How amazing is this performance? My final prediction, a healthy $35M, was exactly half of the film's likely three-day take at $70M.
Studio execs all over town are stunned. All week long, the smart money was on a much more modest performance for Michael Patrick King's big screen adaptation. I have seen the movie, and I think it hits the mark squarely, but I am a guy. And so are most of the studio executives in Hollywood. And so are the majority of the critics who wrote mixed-to-scathing reviews of the movie. Studio honchos, mostly middle-aged men, pointed to 2006's The Devil Wears Prada and last summer's Hairspray, which both opened with about $28M, and guessed that Sex and the City could do a little better. The film industry has dramatically underestimated the box office muscle of the American woman.
Sex and the City stars Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon, Kim Cattrall and Kristin Davis, all somewhere north of 40, and they are a regular Fantastic Four (sans superpowers). In fact, Sarah Jessica and friends have blown away Angelina Jolie in Lara Croft: Tomb Raider ($47.7M opening) to become the All-Time #1 Opening for a movie headlined by a woman.
Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) will be forced to settle for No. 2 on its second weekend. The Steven Spielberg-directed Lucasfilm property managed an estimated $14.15M on Friday, which will likely translate to a $47.6M 3-day. With a cume in excess of $218M by Monday morning, Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull will get to $300M domestic without even breaking a sweat. I am projecting a $318M cume for Harrison Ford's first Indy film in 19 years, and that should provide more than enough incentive to continue the franchise with Shia LaBeouf.
The Strangers (Rogue), an R-rated slasher pic with a disturbing ad campaign, has scored a surprise $6.8M on Friday. Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman have landed in a nice solid hit with $18.7M expected by Sunday night.
Iron Man (Paramount) has finally overtaken the lagging Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) in the daily and weekend race. Marvel's first self-financed and self-produced movie grabbed another $3.55M on Friday, putting it on pace for an excellent $13.1M. I am now projecting that Robert Downey, Jr.'s superhero debut will top out at $305M domestic. Meanwhile, Prince Caspian limped to $3.3M to start the weekend, and it is targeting $12M for the 3-day and a 5th-place finish.
Sex and the City and Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull will have the two best Per Theatre Averages for the weekend. I am tentatively projecting indie release Caregiver to finish 3rd with $9,280 at its lone engagement. IFC's Savage Grace, starring Julianne Moore, is performing well at twp locations and seems on track for an $8,669 PTA. War, Inc. (First Look), starring John Cusack, is holding well on its 2 screens with an $8,525 PTA possible.
EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Sex and the City & The City (Warner Bros) - $70M - $21,309 PTA $70M cume
2. Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) - $47.6M - $11,174 PTA - $218.48M cume
3. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) - $18.7M - $7,580 PTA - $18.7M cume
4. Iron Man (Paramount) - $13.1M - $3,589 PTA - $275.72M cume
5. Prince Caspian (Disney) - $12M - $3,157 PTA - $114.65M cume
6. What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $6.38M - $2,070 PTA - $65.61M cume
7. Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $2.73M - $1,321 PTA - $41.15M cume
8. Made of Honor (Sony) - $2.51M - $1,319 PTA - $43.47M cume
9. Baby Mama (Universal) - $2.1M - $1,190 PTA - $56.03M cume
10. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $1M - $1,316 PTA - $60.42M cume
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