HOLLYWOOD - This pre-Fourth of July movie-going weekend looks like it will be a spectacular success for Hollywood. Instead of films going toe-to-toe, as they did last weekend with Get Smart (Warner Bros) smacking down Love Guru (Paramount) in a battle of big studio comedies, there will be something for everyone this frame.
Friday, Pixar unleashes its new, animated masterpiece, which some critics have already predicted will be the certain winner of the this year’s Oscar for animation. Everyone I know who has seen Wall-E (Disney) has raved about the film, and movie fans have a love affair with Pixar. With a perfect track record, the Pixar/Disney brand means that the movie will feature cutting edge animation married with the very best storytelling Hollywood has to offer. Not everyone gets it. One industry exec said to me this week, ‘I understand why pandas doing kung fu sell tickets, but what is so special about this robot.’
When Pixar puts its seal on a movie, the premise does not really matter. Whether it is talking cars, a rat who wants to be a chef or a lonely robot, very few people have ever walked away from one of its movies disappointed.
PIXAR FILM RESUME
1995 Toy Story - $29.1M opening - $191.8M cume
1998 A Bug's Life - $33.1M opening (1st weekend wide) - $162.8M cume
1999 Toy Story 2 - $57.3M opening (1st weekend wide) - $245.8M cume
2001 Monsters, Inc. - $62.5M opening - $255.8M cume
2003 Finding Nemo - $70.2M opening - $339.7M cume
2004 The Incredibles - $70.4M opening - $261.4M cume
2006 Cars - $60.1M opening - $244M cume
2007 Ratatouille - $47M opening - $206.4M cume
My sources tell me that tracking is phenomenal for Wall-E, and it is likely to open a notch higher than last June’s Ratatouille, earning a spot in the all-time top 10 openings for animated films. I am calling for $52M-$57M for the 3-day and a possible $115M-$120M banked in its first 10 days in release, which would be a spectacular performance.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 ANIMATED OPENINGS
1. Shrek The Third - $121.6M
2. Shrek 2 - $108M
3. The Simpsons Movie - $74M
4. The Incredibles - $70.4M
5. Finding Nemo - $70.2M
6. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $68M
7. Monsters, Inc. - $62.5M
8. Cars - $60.1M
9. Wall-E - $52M-$57M (projected)
10. Madagascar - $47.2M
Meanwhile, Universal has, smartly, positioned Wanted, the Angelina Jolie action film with a strong R rating, to grab a healthy number of grown-ups, especially men, this weekend. Although some critics are complaining about the over-the-top violence from the remarkable director of the amazing Night Watch series, Timur Bekmambetov, overall, critics love the movie, running at 84 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night.
Hollywood executives had better learn how to pronounce Bekmambetov’s name, and anyone who saw his 2004 Russian release Night Watch and its follow-up Day Watch would have seen him coming. Wanted is filled with startling visuals, visceral action and edge-of-your-seat thrills, and it has a great ‘popcorn movie’ sensibility. It is fun and smart and likely to become a successful franchise for Universal. Although it lacks the spiritual underpinnings of The Matrix, it is a worthy successor to the Wachowskis’ classic.
Industry tracking points to the all-time best June opening for an R-rated movie topping last summer’s Knocked Up.
ALL-TIME TOP 5 R-RATED JUNE OPENINGS
1. Knocked Up - $30.69M
2. The Happening - $30.51M
3. Total Recall - $25.53M
4. The Rock - $25M
5. Eraser - $24.56M
My final prediction is for $36M-$41M Friday-thru-Sunday, which would make it one of the all-time top 12 best R-rated openings.
ALL-TIME BEST TOP 15 R-RATED OPENINGS
1. The Matrix Reloaded - $91.77M
2. The Passion of the Christ - $83.84M
3. 300 - $70.88M
4. Hannibal - $58M
5. 8 Mile - $51.24M
6. Matrix Revolutions - $48.47M
7. Troy - $46.86M
8. American Pie II - $45.11M
9. American Gangster - $43.56M
10. Red Dragon - $36.54M
11. Freddy vs. Jason - $36.42M
12. Interview with the Vampire - $36.38M
13. Gladiator - $34.81M
14. Scream 3 - $34.71M
15. Wedding Crashers - $33.9M
Wanted will also likely become the No. 3 opening in Angelina Jolie’s career, solidifying her reputation as one of the few actresses who can legitimately open a movie single-handedly.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 LIVE-ACTION ANGELINA JOLIE OPENINGS
1. Mr. & Mrs. Smith - $50.34M
2. Lara Croft: Tomb Raider - $47.73M
3. Gone in 60 Seconds - $25.33M
4. Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life - $21.78M
5. The Bone Collector - $16.71M
6. Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow - $15.58M
7. Alexander - $13.68M
8. Taking Lives - $11.45M
9. The Good Shepherd - $9.91M
10. Pushing Tin - $3.55M
And, James McAvoy, so good in The Last King of Scotland and Atonement, will receive a huge career boost from this one as well.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 27-29
1. Wall-E (Disney) - $55M
2. Wanted (Universal) - $40M
3. Get Smart (Warner Bros) - $19.5M
4. Incredible Hulk (Universal) - $12.25M
5. Love Guru (Paramount) - $5.9M
6. The Happening (Fox) - $5.6M
7. Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) - $5M
8. Sex and the City (Sony) - $4.25M
9. You Don't Mess With The Zohan (Sony) - $4M
10. Iron Man (Paramount) - $2.75M
http://www.hollywood.com/news/BO_Weekend_Tracking_WALL_E_targets_52M_57M_opening_weekend/5265907
