HOLLYWOOD - Exhibitors and distributors alike were less-than-thrilled with the prospect of Independence Day landing on a Friday. The Fourth of July is not a traditionally strong day for movie-going because of the beach or the lake, family barbeques and, of course, fireworks. With the holiday landing on a Friday, the industry expected to take this hit on a key day of the week, where a significant chunk of tickets are sold.
Despite that, Will Smith's Hancock (Sony) has posted the all-time No. 2 Fourth of July take with an estimated $18.8M, trailing only Spider-Man 2's $21.95M.
ALL-TIME BEST FOURTH OF JULY PERFORMANCES
1. Spider-Man 2 - $21.95M
2. Hancock - $18.8M (estimate)
3. Independence Day - $17.34M
4. Men in Black II - $16.49M
5. Men in Black - $15.72M
6. Terminator 3 - $13.03
7. War of the Worlds - $12.18M
8. Superman Returns - $10.51M
9. The Perfect Storm - $9.02M
10. Terminator 2: Judgment Day - $8.87M
The weekend projection is a bit tricky. Tuesday-Thursday will have siphoned off some of Hancock's business, but the Fourth of July festivities will probably mean a better-than-usual Friday-to-Saturday increase. After wrestling with the numbers and spending time with a number of key numbers-crunchers at competing studios, I am projecting a $26M Saturday for Hancock followed by $18M on Sunday. That would give the Peter Berg-directed superhero flick to a five and a half day total of $103.23M or so.
For some reason, the long knives seem to be out for Hancock. To be clear, $100M+ in five and a half days is not a disappointment in any way, shape or form. We have certainly come to expect a great deal from Will Smith, and when the release schedule was set, people may have expected a bigger opening, but, if the number holds, this is an excellent start.
By Monday, Will Smith will have grabbed his 12th $100M+ grossing film, tied with Harrison Ford and trailing only Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Eddie Murphy.
MOST $100M+ HITS IN A CAREER
(Including animated films & excluding cameos)
Tom Hanks: 15
Tom Cruise: 14
Eddie Murphy: 13
Will Smith and Harrison Ford: 12 (including Hancock)
Jim Carrey and Robin Williams: 11
Mel Gibson and Matt Damon: 9
Bruce Willis and Jack Nicholson: 8
Will Smith, however, will have achieved something unprecedented--a feat never done by the Toms - Hanks and Cruise. Hancock will be his eighth consecutive $100M+ grossing blockbuster. Hanks and Cruise both had career-best streaks of seven films with $100M+. Here is Will's current streak.
2002: Men in Black II; $52.14M opening; $190.41M cume
2003: Bad Boys II; $46.52M opening; $138.6M cume
2004: I, Robot; $52.17M opening; $144.8M cume
2004: Shark Tale; $47.6M opening; $160.86M cume
2005: Hitch; $43.12M opening; $179.49M cume
2006: The Pursuit of Happyness; $26.54M opening; $163.56M cume
2007: I Am Legend; $77.21M opening; $256.39M cume
2008: Hancock--estimated $103.23M by Monday
Pixar's Wall-E (Disney) has added an estimated $10M on Friday, and that will likely translate to $38.5M or so for the three-day for a new cume of $133.1M. If the number holds, Wall-E will have posted the third-best 10-day total in Pixar history.
10-DAY GROSSES FOR PIXAR FILMS
1. Finding Nemo - $144.04M opening
2. The Incredibles - $143.25M opening
3. Wall-E - $133.1M opening (estimate)
4. Monsters, Inc. - $122.15M opening
5. Cars - $117.05M opening
6. Ratatouille - $109.53M opening
7. Toy Story 2 - $57.38M opening
8. Toy Story - $49.1M opening
9. A Bug's Life - $46.11M opening
And, more impressively by Monday, Wall-E will have scored the all-time fifth-best 10-day gross for an animated film.
ALL-TIME TOP 10-DAY GROSSES FOR ANIMATED FILMS
1. Shrek The Third - $185.17M
2. Shrek 2 - $184.89M
3. Finding Nemo - $144.04M
4. The Incredibles - $143.32M
5. Wall-E - $133.1M (estimate)
6. The Simpsons Movie - $128.06M
7. Monsters, Inc - $122.15M
8. Kung Fu Panda - $117.28M
9. Cars - $117.05M
10. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $115.75M
Universal's Wanted appears to be taking a steeper-than-expected hit this weekend. The Angelina Jolie/James McAvoy Matrix-style action film managed an estimated $5.5M on Friday and seems on target for a $22.5M three-day. That would mean a five-day (Wednesday-thru-Friday) of $30.7M and a new cume of about $92.61M.
The comedy holdover Get Smart (Warner Bros) was No. 4 for the day with about $3M. Its three-day will likely be $10.7M for a new cume just $3.4M shy of the $100M mark. Meanwhile, Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) keeps clicking along with $2M Friday and a $7.4M three-day. The animated pic from Jeffrey Katzenberg's animation house will have banked aboyt $193.31M by Monday morning.
Finally, the expansion of Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) is a full-on disaster. The Abigail Breslin movie with an A-list supporting cast appears to have managed just $900,000 on Friday. It's three-day will be a miserable $3.5M or so, and its five-day will not be any better than $5.5M despite playing on over 1,700 screens.
EARLY FIVE-DAY OFFICE ESTIMATES
1. NEW! Hancock (Sony): $96.4 million, $24,313 PTA, $103.23 million cume
2. Wall-E (Disney): $53.5 million, $13,402 PTA, $133.1 million cume
3. Wanted (Universal): $30.7 million, $9,669 PTA, $92.61 million cume
4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.): $14.9 million, $4,169 PTA, $97.56 million cume
5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount): $10.65 million, $3,182 PTA, $193.31 million cume
6. Incredible Hulk (Universal): $6.32 million, $1,885 PTA, $124.54 million cume
7. Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount): $5.65 million, $2,580 PTA, $307.05 million cume
8. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse): $5.51 million, $3,144 PTA, $6.01 million cume
9. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.): $4.06 million, $3,186 PTA, $145.41 million cume
10. The Love Guru (Paramount): $3.12 million, $1,180 PTA, $29.83 million cume
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