HOLLYWOOD - Guillermo del Toro’s Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) should be able to edge out Sony’s Will Smith holdover, but it could be closer than expected. Del Toro is a genius, whose reputation has been burnished by the success of his Oscar-winning Pan's Labyrinth in 2006, and the Hellboy sequel is receiving very positive reviews with an 87 percent Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of Thursday at noon. It is, however, the second chapter of a franchise that managed less than $60M domestic.
For me, the first Hellboy was completely original--a comic book movie that refused to rely on non-stop CGI, featuring uniquely flawed characters like a big red guy from hell who has a bad attitude and loves cats. Very clever. Wickedly funny. And without question, the first film has gained traction on cable and DVD and Hellboy II: The Golden Army will open strongly, but it is not a sure thing.
Several of my regular sources are predicting something in the $20M’s for the first three days of Hellboy II ’s release, but, although tracking is a bit soft, I still believe that this movie will generate a $33M-$36M opening, which would likely be enough to hold off Hancock for No. 1 and mark the best start ever for a Guillermo del Toro-directed movie.
GUILLERMO DEL TORO RESUME
1994: Cronos - $17,500 opening - $625,000 cume
1997: Mimic - $7.81M opening - $25.48M cume
2001: The Devil's Backbone - $35,000 opening - $755,000 cume
2002: Blade II - $32.52M opening - $82.34M cume
2004: Hellboy - $23.17M opening - $59.62M cume
2006: Pan's Labyrinth - $570,000 opening - $37.63M cume
A quick word about Sony’s Peter Berg-directed superhero pic Hancock. Despite its wildly polarizing third-act twist, it received a solid B+ from moviegoers surveyed by Cinemascore last weekend, and the grade was an even stronger A- with Males Under 25. The movie is good fun, and, although I am not a big fan of “the twist,” Hancock makes for a breezy summer blockbuster that successfully capitalizes on Will Smith’s charm. All of this adds up to what should be a decent hold and a second weekend take in the $29M-$32M range.
Exhibitors across the country have been racing to add Digital 3D at theatres in order to take full advantage of Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros), starring Brendan Fraser, which also opens this weekend. Critics who have seen the movie, in 3D, have been very positive, even “blown away,” but many have advised that as a traditional 2D film it may be lacking.
There is no denying that Digital 3D technology is an important part of the film industry’s future. Disney’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour movie opened at 683 3D locations, and it scored an opening weekend Per Theatre Average of $45,500, but Journey will not match that PTA at its 800 or so 3D locations. Still, its Digital 3D-equipped screens will likely dramatically out-perform the theatres with traditional 2D presentation.
This is a family film, and there are a lot of kids not represented in the so-so tracking for Journey to the Center of the Earth, so that, combined with the anticipated 3D boost, should result in a three-day of something in the $19M-$22M range, which would make it Brendan Fraser’s all-time 3rd-best opening.
ALL-TIME TOP FIVE BRENDAN FRASER OPENINGS
1. The Mummy Returns - $68.13M opening
2. The Mummy - $43.36M opening
3. George of the Jungle - $16.54M opening
4. Bedazzled - $13.1M opening
5. Encino Man - $9.86M opening
The news is not good for Meet Dave, Fox’s re-teaming of star Eddie Murphy and director Brian Robbins who scored big together with Norbit last year. The campaign just has not clicked with audiences and the First Choice score is disastrously low.
It appears that this will be Murphy’s softest opening since The Adventures of Pluto Nash ($2.18M), and, amazingly, this movie could score a sub-$10M opening. I am predicting $8M-$11M.
FINAL BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS WEEKEND OF JULY 11
1. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) - $35M
2. Hancock (Sony) - $30M
3. Wall-E (Disney) - $23M
4. Journey to the Center of the Earth - $22M
5. Meet Dave (Fox) - $10M
6. Get Smart (Warner Bros) - $6.4M
7. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.75M
8. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) - $2.6M
9. Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) - $2.5M
10. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) - $1.5M
http://www.hollywood.com/news/BO_Weekend_Tracking_Hellboy_II_Likely_to_Scare_Up_33M_36M/5272585
