HOLLYWOOD - FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): With the crack of a bullwhip, Steven Spielberg’s Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) has rebounded from a solid, but somewhat disappointing opening day, surging 23 percent for an estimated $30.8M Friday. As I first reported Thursday night, Crystal Skull is playing like a family film instead of a Spider-Man 3-style, teen-fueled blockbuster. That means that instead of being front-loaded and primed for a second drop, Crystal Skull is picking up steam like that big boulder in the iconic opening set piece in the original Raiders of the Lost Ark.
I spent some time delving into industry tracking data with several studio execs tonight, and the numbers are beginning to make sense. The three strongest demos for Crystal Skull are 45-69’s, 35-44’s and 25-34’s. These are not the kind of moviegoers who show up at a 12:01a Wednesday night show or rush to the local multiplex on a mid-week Thursday. They started showing up on Friday, and they had their kids and grandkids in tow. The nostalgia factor is huge. This will probably mean another healthy increase on Saturday, typical for a family film.
Crystal Skull is now targeting $100M for the traditional three-day weekend, Friday-through-Sunday, although at the moment I am projecting $98.56M. That would mean a total domestic take of $123.6M by Sunday night. I am penciling in a conservative $24.5M or so for Monday, which would push Harrison Ford and his fedora to a four-day Memorial Day weekend of $123.2M and a five-day haul of $148.24M.
If these numbers change, my gut says they go up and not down, but there is some guesswork involved. If the numbers hold, Crystal Skull will become the all-time No. 2 Memorial Day Weekend opening, trailing only last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End at $139.8M. It also will register the all-time, fifth-best five-day performance in movie history.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 FIVE-DAY PERFORMANCES
1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $172.8M opening
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $169.5M opening
3. Spider-Man 3 - $169.4M opening
4. Spider-Man 2 - $152.4M opening
5. Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $148.24M opening (estimate)
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - $147.5M opening
7. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix - $139.7M opening
8. The Matrix Reloaded - $139.3M opening
9. Shrek the Third - $137.7M opening
10. Spider-Man - $135.8M opening
Check back often this weekend, because the moment I get updated information, I will push it out.
The news is not good for The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian from Disney and Walden Media. The well-reviewed family film tumbled from $19.39M last Friday to just $6.48M or so to start this weekend. That is a 66 percent drop. The second film in what Walden hopes will be a seven-film Narnia franchise seems headed for just under $22M for the three-day and something close to $29M for the long holiday weekend. Even after 11 days, Prince Caspian will still be about $5M shy of the $100M mark.
Iron Man (Paramount) is an exceedingly strong No. 3 for the frame, grabbing an estimated $5.29M Friday. That will likely translate to just under $20M by Sunday night and a four-day of $25M+. By end of business Monday, the Marvel production will likely have a new cume of $257.4M.
In the shadow of Crystal Skull, Prince Caspian and Iron Man, Fox’s What Happens in Vegas continues to perform well. The comedy scored another $3.08M on its third Friday, and it will probably top $15.5M for the four-day frame. The comedy will have quietly racked up almost $61M domestic by the end of the long weekend.
The Wachowski’s Speed Racer (Warner Bros) will likely spend its final weekend in the top five. The expensive CGI spectacle managed $1.3M or so Friday, and its four-day will probably be about $5.25M for a disastrous new cume of just $37.45M.
The best per theater average (PTA) of the long weekend will, of course, be posted by Crystal Skull with something in the neighborhood of $29,000. 2007 Cannes Film Festival Best Screenplay winner Edge of Heaven (Strand) enjoyed a strong $4,000 opening day at The Film Forum in New York, its only location, and it could be headed for an impressive $20,000+ by Monday night. First Look’s War, Inc., starring John Cusack, and The Children of Huang Shi (Sony Classics) are both off to solid starts on the specialty circuit.
The schlock master Uwe Boll has unleashed another ridiculous bomb, although his movies seem to be starting on fewer and fewer screens. The German ‘auteur’ who gave the world Bloodrayne, only secured 13 screens for his new movie Postal (Event Films), and its four-day PTA will likely be less than $500.
http://www.hollywood.com/news/Indy_Blowout_Crystal_Skull_Surges_23_Percent_for_308M_Friday/5241867
